Bias towards what we think is “truth” blinds us to fallacious arguments, not just to evidence that contradicts our beliefs.

Usually confirmation bias is associated with selecting factual evidence that confirms our pre-existing beliefs and rejecting evidence that contradicts them. However, there is another kind of confirmation bias, which I think is both more subtle and more dangerous than bias in selecting evidence. This is a confirmation bias towards fallacious arguments.

The danger lies not just in coming to the wrong conclusion in that one instance. The deeper danger is the following: Even if the conclusion in this one instance is true, we ourselves may repeat the fallacious argument in a different context and conclude something untrue. In general, it…

I listened to this (Jan 11th 2020) morning’s “Forum” on KQED. Not the useless Michael Krasny’s part (he’s set to retire on Feb 12th, good riddance. He has shown his colors as an enabler or apologist at best of racist cops with his bleating softball question about “cops and the communities they serve” in the wake of the shooting of Michael Brown in Ferguson MO in 2014) but the part hosted by the much more incisive Mina Kim.

There was a lot of talk about the “intelligence failure” at the Capitol overthrow/kidnapping/assassination attempt on Wednesday jan 6th.

This brought up…

“Police helplessness in the face of heavily armed Antifa who took over the Capitol on December 6th is evidence we need more funding for more weapons and personnel. We were unable to predict the scale of this protest because we saw nothing, nothing about it at all on The FaceBook or The Twitter feeds of all the socialistic, communist, radical left wing BLM domestic terrorists we monitor, we need more funding for domestic counter-terrorism to infiltrate and disrupt BLM, DSA, AOC, the Greens and the Vegans. …

Nobody changes their minds about anything, ever.

This is a simple experiment about people’s beliefs about falling balls. Nobody is saying anything physicsy about “freefall”, “under the earth’s gravitational field”. The experimenter holds up two identically sized balls, one is a relatively light red basket ball and the other is a heavier black medicine ball. All he does is ask people, if the two balls are dropped simultaneously from the same height, which one will hit the ground first.

What do you think will happen?

Universally, everybody is very certain the black one will hit first. In some cases, even after the demonstrator tries to instill some…

“Under this Administration, the ISIS caliphate was destroyed, American hostages were returned home, NATO is stronger than ever, we’ve brokered historic Middle East peace deals, and I was on the ground in Kabul for the announcement of a historic peace deal between the Afghan Government and the Taliban aimed at ending America’s longest war,” (Alyssa) Farah wrote. “…a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine in record time that will save countless thousands of lives…”

Alyssa Farah does the Trump Administration and herself a great disservice. She forgot to mention that the Trump Administration discovered and distributed the polio vaccine, won WorldWar…

“way more” or not “way more”? That is the question.

If you’ve read anything I’ve written in Towards Data Science, you’ll know that taking differences and ratios of probabilities is utter nonsense.

Of course, nothing prevents you from rebutting the argument in the second comment in the above image by saying, “33% vs. 20% is a 65% increase because 65% = (33–20)/20! That is yuuuge!”

Nothing prevents you from saying that you can multiply two complex numbers (in their tuple representation) by

(a,b) * (c,d) = (a*c, b*d).

You could, but you would never do that, would you?

For the…

This is a checklist, not meant to to be a stand-alone doc. Please start with the comprehensive document and the checklist.

• Stick with your pod. Don’t protest alone. Set a location to meet if people are separated.
• Write your outside support person’s mobile and your medical conditions on your arm. Also write the National Lawyers Guild SF Bay Area legal hotline: 415–285–1011
• Look for the street medics and keep track of where they are.
• If you have medical experience or supplies you want to offer, join them!
• Assign a pod member to assess your surroundings. Know where to head to…

“Protest is inherently a dangerous activity, and it is getting more and more dangerous.” — Emily Gorcenski

Be aware that the risk of enduring physical injury or arrest is high. Please be prepared.

See the comprehensive version for more details.

A. Pandemic specific precautions

Crowded Outdoor Situations: Mask for mouth and nose, 6’ distance, no physical contact

Protecting your bubble: If people in your bubble are high risk, find ways other than protests of supporting social causes. Use sanitizers, Wash hands and face with soap on return. Consider testing and quarantining.

B. Protests

1. Know the organizers, their goals and values, the issues, your role, your rights
2. …