All those polls were wrong? You aren’t pointing out anything that statisticians don’t know. So perhaps they and you need to look elsewhere. Here’s what I think — white people lie.
“Inter-racial internet dating behavior predicted a ‘November surprise’ — Trump’s victory” https://medium.com/@ranjeettate/inter-racial-internet-dating-behavior-predicted-a-november-surprise-trumps-victory-3a9d0610fd56
Big thanks for pointing out that 538 in 2012 could have been a fluke — make enough predictions and one will be right, not just best. This pervades “big data”, which is dominated by statisticians but very few scientists.