People get attached to their recollections, to the extent of not bothering to check facts, this is well-known, so I am glad you leave yourself an out. This is what Nate Silver would like you to believe, that he “called it volatile”, I suppose wrapped in some economic-statistical mumbo jumbo about “p-hacking” (pronounced “phacking” by actual real scientists). However, on his own website, he has the honesty to leave it as he called it then, 70–30 in favor of Hurk.

It is entirely possible that Russian trollbots led by Vlad himself have hacked Nate’s website. But if I were Putin, I wouldn’t bother, Americans can p-hack themselves quite well thank you.