Yes. I got worried about the outcome of the 2015 election a few days before election day, after listening to some working class white men. I didn't ask them who they supported, just what they thought would happen. The one who was best able to articulate why the would "be a surprise on Nov 9th" basically said that White people he knew (White women more so) would lie and present a different public face, whereas at gatherings and on social media where they felt safe (from judgement) they would express their enthusiastic love for Trump.

That brought to mind similar "I know what answer you want" behavior on race and dating. There is a series of OK Cupid blogs based on their own data: the first one basically found that only a small percentage of White people were "open to dating people of other races", much smaller than any other race. They published this blog, it got some attention in the press. Then a couple of years later they looked at the same data and found that now the percentage of White people who claimed they were open to inter-racial dating had increased dramatically! They published this, but luckily someone there realised that had all the data they needed to check behavior vs stated self-belief, and found, unsurprisingly, that the percent of White people actually communicating with people of other races had remained the same low number consistent with the earlier data.

So all the 538 like stat.s modelling and what not is useless, not just because of the paucity of numbers and the fact that the stated SE leads to an underestimate of the probability of being wrong, but because the measuring instrument is severely flawed and unreliable. You can correct for bias, but not for noise. Scientists doubt the provenance of their data all the time, but statisticians aren't scientists. It would be like believing you've detected gravitational waves when some claptrap contraption of strings and sticks and stones occasionally vibrates.

This time around, the "shy Trump voter" effect may not be a thing, because in the intervening 4 years even the "moderate" racists have been empowered to freely express it.

I stop to miau to cats.

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